Is a 1-term promise critical for McCain?

Republican presidential hopeful John McCain can help his chances by vowing to serve only one term — a recognition of his relatively advanced age and a promise that his time in the White House wouldn't be tainted by the politics of seeking a second term.

That's according to Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics and a professor whose "Crystal Ball" Internet site bills itself as "the Web's most accurate political analysis."

Sabato talked Friday in Charleston before hundreds of state mayors and city council members gathered for the Municipal Association of South Carolina's annual meeting.

While much can change in the more-than 100 days remaining before the Nov. 4 elections, Sabato was confident that Democrats will increase their majorities in the U.S. Senate and House and that the presidential race is Barack Obama's to lose, largely because of both Republican President George Bush's unpopularity and a sagging economy.

For McCain to win, Sabato said, "he has to roll the dice over and over and over again."

One such roll should be a pledge to serve only one term, Sabato said. McCain would turn 80 before the end of his second term, an age many consider too old for the rigors of the White House. "John McCain has a shot at one term," Sabato said. "He has no shot at two terms."

McCain's chances also would be bolstered by continued Democratic dissent, continued quiet in Iraq, signs of an economic turnaround, and McCain's ability to portray himself as the candidate who is more experienced, less likely to raise taxes and better suited to check a Democratic-controlled Congress.

"Barack Obama is going to have to try to lose," he said, adding, "Democrats have had enormous experience throwing away elections they should have won."

Sabato said other factors that could affect the outcome would be decisions by Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz or by Israel to attack Iran's nuclear facility. A possible terrorist attack, serious scandal, giant voter turnout, and troop withdrawals from Iraq to Afghanistan also could play a role.

Sabato reminded South Carolina municipal officials that both Obama and McCain won crucial primary victories here earlier this year, joking that the current presidential field "is your fault. ... No, it's not your fault, but it is your responsibility."

He also predicted that since New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg didn't enter the race, no third-party candidate will have impact on the presidential race this fall. He called independent candidate Ralph Nader "a spent force," though he did say Libertarian contender Bob Barr might help Obama win Barr's home state of Georgia.

Reach Robert Behre at 937-5771 or at rbehre@postandcourier.com.